My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:
• Making Sense of Recession Probabilities. Preliminary estimate of gross domestic product for Q1 2025,showed GDP declined 0.3%. Even prior to this, Google web searches of the term “recession” hit peak popularity. News articles mentioning recession often cited market analysts’ “probability of recession.” How do economists and Wall Street analysts generate these so-called recession probabilities, and what do they mean? (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
• How Attractive Is Private Equity? How good are your manager selection skills? (Morningstar) see also Is private equity becoming a money trap? Lack of exits for deals struck by managers in frothy times is straining the business model of the asset class. (Financial Times)
• Hollywood Has Left L.A.For years, studios found it cheaper to shoot elsewhere. Post-industry-collapse, elsewhere is the only place they’ll shoot. (Vulture)
• Trump Ripping Up the Free Trade Playbook Comes With $1 Trillion Cost: The ominous trajectory of the US president’s tariff overhaul looms over the G-7 gathering. (Bloomberg) see also Where’s the Inflation From Tariffs? Just Wait, Economists Say. Are predictions for a jump in consumer prices too early, or just wrong? (New York Times)
• How Mossad covertly prepared Israel’s attack from deep inside Iran: The targeting of leaders and sensitive sites relied on activating intelligence teams, pre-positioned weapons and other capabilities that had long lain dormant. (Washington Post)
• If You Can ‘Like’ Everything, Do You Value Anything? A new history of the “like” button raises questions about what it means to interact effortlessly with others. (Bloomberg)
• 18 Things You Didn’t Know Your iPhone Could Do: No matter how long you’ve used an iPhone, there are always new (or new-to-you) features to discover. And stumbling upon a time-saving trick after so many years is, quite frankly, a delight. (New York Times).
• Trump administration races to fix a big mistake: DOGE fired too many people. Across the government, officials are rehiring federal workers who were forced out or encouraged to resign. (Washington Post) see also The mainstream media has enabled Trump’s war on universities: For the past decade, the US press has fueled a moral panic over leftists on campus while failing to report on the right’s assault. (The Guardian)
• Troops and Marines deeply troubled by LA deployment: ‘Morale is not great’ Several service members told advocacy groups they felt like pawns in a political game and assignment was unnecessary. (The Guardian)
• Good vibrations When pop music went supernova. About the pop music revolution that took place over a 14-month period in 1965-66. It’s a sort of follow-up to an earlier post I did on Renaissance painting. I can already anticipate some of the objections; so let me address them before getting into the meat of the post. (The Pursuit of Happiness)
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with William J. Bernstein, Ph.D., M.D. He is a retired neurologist, principal in the money management firm Efficient Frontier Advisors, and author of several best-selling books on finance and history. He was the winner of the 2017 James R. Vertin Award from CFA Institute. His latest book is The Delusions Of Crowds: Why People Go Mad in Groups.
Trade Between China and the US Collapsing
Source: Apollo
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