Big week ahead

Just last week, I had this conversation with someone I know who recently got into crypto.

Long story short, they were bummed out because crypto had “disappointed” them – they expected way higher returns given all the hype around Bitcoin they’d been hearing.

FYI: they made their first Bitcoin investment eight months ago 🙃

This got me thinking about the issue of the whole “Wen Lambo” mentality – and coincidentally, this is also what tech entrepreneur Kyle Chassé and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently talked about in a podcast.

So, I figured we’d break down what they said.

(And yes, I’m absolutely sending this newsletter to that person I talked to – hey Jason, hope you’re actually reading this. Maybe even take notes 🤪)

Kyle started off by pointing out that lots of markets – stocks, gold, global liquidity – are hitting all-time highs right now. But crypto feels like it’s lagging behind.

So, his question: “When is some of all the money floating around the financial system finally going to move into crypto?”

And Arthur responded that it’s the wrong way to think about things.

Bitcoin has actually been the best-performing asset when you account for money printing and currency debasement.

Sure, stocks and housing have gone up in dollar terms, but if you measure them against gold, most haven’t really gained much since the last financial crisis.

And gold is a better benchmark than dollars because it maintains its purchasing power over time, while dollars get printed into oblivion.

Now, let’s take a look at how different assets compare to gold.

Dow Jones vs. gold 👇

Real estate vs. gold 👇

And last but not least, Bitcoin vs. gold 👇

As you can see, Bitcoin has absolutely demolished every other asset class when measured against gold.

So, Arthur’s point: if you’re looking at Bitcoin over a short time frame and wondering why it isn’t exploding every week, you’re missing the bigger picture.

People who’ve held it for years are already way ahead compared to holding dollars or traditional assets.

The takeaway: stop stressing about short-term movements. Bitcoin is crushing it over the long run, and expecting Lambos on your first week… yeah, that just isn’t the right approach.