UPTOBER IS HEREEE!! LFG Y’ALL!!!! 🔥 THE CROWD GOES… quite mild, actually.
But hey, AT LEAST CRYPTO’S NOT CRASHING!!! 🗣️🔊
The mild greens you’re seeing in the price table rn are mostly driven by macro and political factors. More specifically, this 👇
The US government shut down today after lawmakers failed to pass a funding bill.
And for crypto, that creates two immediate effects:
1️⃣ Dollar weakness: political dysfunction often drags the dollar down. And a weaker dollar = capital hunts for alternative stores of value = crypto picks up some of it.
2️⃣ Bitcoin as a “safe haven”: more and more, Bitcoin’s being treated like a hedge against political and financial instability, and the shutdown’s good for that narrative.
That said, there’s also a problem.
Because the government is shut down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Census Bureau are furloughed (only independently funded agencies like the Federal Reserve and Treasury keep running).
That means important economic data reports may not come out on schedule.
“And this matters becaaause…?” – you, maybe. Glad you asked.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut were one of the biggest drivers of the last crypto rally, and traders leaned heavily on jobs and inflation data to build that case.
With those reports potentially delayed, the market loses its main macro compass.
So, while uncertainty and dollar weakness can support Bitcoin, the lack of data makes it harder for traders (and the Fed itself) to confidently price in rate cuts.
|
And that leaves us with a very unusual October calendar 👇
❓ October 3: Jobs report
Normally one of the most important monthly clues for the Fed – but it won’t be released if the shutdown is still in place.
❓ October 15: CPI
This is usually the most important pre-Fed inflation reading. Same story, though: delayed if the shutdown continues.
❓ October 16: PPI
Also dependent on funding being restored. Without it, markets lose secondary inflation signals too.
❓ Mid-October: SEC deadlines for altcoin ETFs (SOL, XRP, LTC, DOGE, etc.)
The SEC is also affected by furloughs, so deadlines may be pushed back.
🟢 October 29: FOMC meeting & Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference
Still on. The most important event of the month.
But Powell will have to set policy without new jobs or inflation data, which could make him lean cautious.
🟢 October 29 – 30: ECB Governing Council.
Still on. Offers global liquidity cues that spill into crypto.
So yeah, overall: issa mess.
For now, October’s story looks like this: less data, more volatility, and heavier reliance on narratives and central banks.
But we’ll see.
