I spill a lot of words about Denominator Blindness in “How Not to Invest.” The opportunities to demonstrate terrible examples of denominator blindness are never-ending. The latest example — and one of the most absurd ones you will ever see — comes from somebody who should know better, Senator Ron Johnson.
Here is what the Senator had to say:
Ron Johnson: “In 56 years of tracking Tylenol, there have been 39,540 death reported to FAIRS. That’s 706 per year. For ivermectin – remember the one that they said was so dangerous? – in 29 years reporting, 493 deaths, 17 a year.” 1
It’s a classic denominator blindness example, because you are NOT seeing the total number of doses in question. By only showing the number of deaths (the numerator) but not the size of the data set (the denominator), we see an obvious attempt to mislead the viewer.
To do a fair “Apples to Apples” comparison, the first thing you would need is the number of doses of each drug that are consumed annually:
“More than 25 billion acetaminophen doses are sold in the US annually.” That’s in 2023; this year, the number is over 28 billion.” (See GMI, JAMA, and ATrain)
And Ivermectin?
“Approximately 450,000 outpatient prescriptions for ivermectin were filled in the United States in 2023.” (See Cognitive, ClinCalc).
In other words, there are roughly 50,000 times more doses of Acetaminophen, the active ingredient in Tylenol, consumed each year than doses of Ivermectin.
If as few doses of Tylenol were consumed each year as Ivermectin, there would be one Acetaminophen death every 72 years.2
And, if as many doses of Ivermectin as Tylenol were consumed each year, the body count in the U.S. for the antiparasitic drug would be over 850,000 deaths annually. That would be like losing the entire population of a city like Indianapolis or San Francisco – every year.
Always pay attention when people intentionally misrepresent numbers to deceive you. They are up to no good, and often have a hand in your pocket…
Previously:
What Kills You and Your Investments (May 21, 2014)
You Are Worrying About the Wrong Things (October 22, 2014)
Don’t Suffer From Denominator Blindness (October 14, 2015)
Shark vs. Mosquito Deaths (April 26, 2018)
Shark Attacks Illustrate an Investing Problem (January 28, 2019)
Denominator Blindness, Shark Attack edition (February 5, 2019)
Your Chances of Dying (July 25, 2019)
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1. I assume that “FAIRS” was a typo, and here is supposed to be FAERS: The FDA’s Adverse Event Reporting System.
2. Tylenol is the best-known brand of the drug Acetaminophen; I use the two names interchangeably.
